Can the Angels win big by relying on the bullpen?

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

In 2012, the Angels tried that whole "most talented rotation in baseball" thing.  It was a real nice idea in theory, alas it was a borderline disaster in practice.  In reaction to that, Jerry Dipoto decided to go in the complete other reaction and build from the back of the pitching staff forward.  He replenished the overall depth and talent level of the bullpen merely plugged holes in the rotation.  It isn't sexy, but it is a strategy and maybe even a good one.

In fact, one could argue that this is the very blueprint for constructing a pitching staff that Mike Scioscia had his most success with earlier in his tenure.  Scioscia masked the weakness of his starting pitchers by shortening games with his stellar relievers.  If the Angels had the lead after the sixth inning, the opponent was pretty much toast.  Or at least that is what our memories of the great Percival-K-Rod-Shields-Donnelly bullpens were able to accomplish.

What we need to figure out is whether or not the stats back up that narrative, which I really hope it does because that seems to be what the Halo front office is banking on.  To determine the answer to that quandry, I've broken out the starting pitcher usage and the performance of the rotation and bullpen throughout the Scioscia era.  To show whether or not that usage actually paid dividends, I've also included the team's record and Pythagorean record as a finger in the air assessment of how much the Angels under- or over-achieved that season.

YEAR Starter ERA IP/GS PITCHES/GS Bullpen ERA TEAM RECORD PYTHAG RECORD
2012 4.04 6.1 98 3.97 89-73 88-74
2011 3.59 6.4 101 3.52 86-76 85-77
2010 4.05 6.3 102 4.03 80-82 79-83
2009 4.44 5.9 97 4.49 97-65 92-70
2008 4.14 6.2 100 3.69 100-62 88-74
2007 4.22 6.0 97 4.24 94-68 90-72
2006 4.16 6.1 97 3.78 89-73 84-78
2005 3.75 6.3 97 3.52 95-67 93-69
2004 4.70 6.0 97 3.47 92-70 91-71
2003 4.90 5.7 94 3.15 77-85 80-82
2002 4.00 6.2 100 2.98 99-63 101-61
2001 4.49 6.2 98 3.54 75-87 77-85
2000 5.54 5.5 92 4.16 82-80 81-81
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Halo Headlines: projecting Trout's career numbers, DiSarcina leaves for Boston, Greinke talks about leaving the Angels

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

The December 12th, 2012 edition of daily news for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim including projecting Trout's career numbers, DiSarcina leaves for Boston, Greinke talks about leaving the Angels and much more...

The Story: Projecting Mike Trout's career numbers.

The Monkey Says: His average looks a bit low to me, if only because I'd think his speed could keep that inflated but it is hard to complain about a projection 84 career WAR.  If that comes to pass, he's a lock for the Hall of Fame as he'd be in the same WAR range as guys like George Brett and Ken Griffey Junior.


The Story: Gary DiSarcina has left the Angels front office to manager Boston's Triple-A team in Pawtucket.

The Monkey Says: DiSar has Red Sox ties and still has a home in the area, so this seems to be too good of an opportunity for him to pass up from a personal standpoint.  It will be curious to see if Dipoto replaces Gary quickly or keeps the spot open.


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Tale of the Tape: the 2013 Angels vs. the 2012 Angels

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

Much has been made of the way the Angels have re-shaped their roster this off-season.  While the changes have certainly lacked the style and substance of the Angels' previous winter of moves, Jerry Dipoto insists that he made the team better.  The fans and most analysts beg to differ though.

So who is right?  Shall we whip out some fancy sabermetrics?  Should we do some real deep analytical work?  Might we need to search our souls?

Nah, forget all that.  It sounds hard and I'm just not in the mood for that.  No, instead let us fall back on the tried and true test of the Tale of the Tape.  I mean, why do math and stuff when we can rely on a methodology once popularized by a part-time ESPN writer whose primary job was writing for lousy family sitcoms

Enough quibbling about my choice of comparison tools.  Let's just do this and have some fun:

 

2012 Mike Trout vs. 2013 Mike Trout: Trout should get better as he gets older, which is a pretty scary thought (for the rest of baseball).  However, I can't shake the notion that his 2012 season will be his magnum opus and thus will never be topped although he should be able to get close to it.  That being said, at least in 2013 the Angels get Trout in the lineup from day one, and I think that is the deciding factor.  EDGE: 2013 Trout

2012 Erick Aybar vs. 2013 Erick Aybar: Trying to predict Aybar's performance is like trying to predict the last ten minutes of an M. Night Shyamalan film.  It's going to be unexpected, probably riddled with mental loopholes and ultimately frustrating.  Let's just split the difference and call it a push.  EDGE: Push

2012 Albert Pujols vs. 2013 Albert Pujols: Say what you want about Albert's declining plate discipline, but at least we shouldn't have to suffer through another month like the one he had in April of 2012.  EDGE: 2013 Pujols

2012 Kendrys Morales vs. 2013 Kendrys Morales: I'll be the first to admit that Kendrys Morales far exceeded my expectations in 2012.  I thought for sure that he would take a long time to shake off the rust and probably miss time with minor setbacks.  Both of those things kind of happened, yet Kendrys still had a pretty solid year.  Now, just imagine what he is going to do next year with no more rust holding him back.  EDGE: 2013 Morales

2012 Mark Trumbo vs. 2013 Mark Trumbo: I have no idea.  I really don't.  His two half seasons were polar opposites.  I want to blame his slump on his back/rib injury but even the team seems to be shying away from that explanation.  And even if that proves true, his outstanding first half to the season was clearly unsustainable if you look at his BABIP and other peripherals.  He could very well bounce back and put up All-Star numbers again or he could fall on his face and revert to Dave Kingman v2.0 form.  EDGE: Push, just because I can't justify anything else.

2012 Howie Kendrick vs. 2013 Howie Kendrick: Well, it isn't like he can ground into more double plays.  Am I right?  EDGE: 2013 Kendrick

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Halo Headlines: wondering how much money Weaver left on the table, Angels opt-out of StubHub agreement

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

The December 11th, 2012 edition of daily news for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim including wondering how much money Weaver left on the table, Angels opt-out of StubHub agreement and much more...

The Story: How much money did Jered Weaver leave on the table by signing his extension.

The Monkey Says: It is an interesting question because Weaver would have likely supressed Greinke's price too since there would have been two marquee starters on the market this off-season.  I imagine he would have gotten pretty close to what Greinke got this off-season, though his back problems would have likely cost him some money.


The Story: The Angels have opted-out of the MLB agreement with StubHub.

The Monkey Says: In al likelihood, the Halos are going to follow the Yankees' lead and find a broker that favors the season ticket holders, which is great news for them (and probably the team as it should encourage season ticket sales) but bad news for those of you who liked being able to buy single game tickets on the secondary market.


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Will the Greinke trade be remembered as Dipoto's folly?

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

Well, it happened.  Zack Greinke is staying in Southern California, but he'll be doing so wearing Dodger Blue and all the Angels have to show for it is a wobbly rotation and a giant hole in their farm system where three quality prospects used to be.

Some corners of the baseball world are applauding Jerry Dipoto for the restraint he showed in not giving into Greinke's wild demands.  That's great, really it is.  Not everyone can be the Dodgers and just throw mountains of money at everything with no concern for long-term financial flexibility.  In all likelihood, the Angels would've wound up regretting it had they given Greinke the same deal that the Dodgers did and the Halos already have (at least) one giant contract that they are bound to regret in a few years.

The problem is that Dipoto could have not overpaid for Greinke and still held onto Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena.  Much like the Angels couldn't really afford to give Greinke his record contract, the Angels really couldn't afford to forfeit that kind of prospect haul from their perilously thin farm system, at least not unless they were going to keep Greinke beyond 2012, which we now know they did not.

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Halo Headlines: Greinke signs with the Dodgers, making sense of the Angels' pitching moves

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

The December 10th, 2012 edition of daily news for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim including Greinke signs with the Dodgers, making sense of the Angels' pitching moves and much more...

The Story: Zack Greinke has signed with the Dodgers for six-years and $147 million and will now create all sorts of fallout through the league.

The Monkey Says: Well, I think we all saw this coming, even if it took a little longer than expected.  If there is one good thing about it, it is that Texas didn't get Greinke, so there whole off-season plan remains in flux.  Anyway, good luck to Greinke and the Dodgers.  Not that they need it because we all know LA-based MLB teams that spend a ton in free agency ALWAYS make the playoffs.


The Story: Making sense of the moves the Angels made to rebuild their pitching staff.

The Monkey Says: The main positive appears to be financial flexibility, which won't do them much good because the frre agent pitchers next off-season are just as uninspiring and with the new draft slotting restrictions, the Angels can't put their savings into the draft to rebuild their farm system either.


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Podcast with a Halo - Episode 12: Now is the Winter Meetings of our discontent

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

In the latest episode of Podcast with a Halo, we review the "meh" inspiring results of the Winter Meetings and learn a lesson about risk tolerance.

Direct download the episode here or subscribe to the podcast here.  And help us out by leaving a rating or comment over at iTunes.


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