Ryan Madson suffers another setback, Angels could explore trade options

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

It had been a few days since we heard any word on where Ryan Madson was in his rehab. In most cases, no news is good news. That doesn't appear to apply to Madson though as Mike DiGiovanna reported this morning:

Welp, more elbow tightness. This is only a minor setback, but a setback nonetheless. Unlike last earlier in camp, Madson hasn't been shut down and hasn't, as far as we know, been sent off for an MRI. Instead, he's just taken a small step back and is only long tossing. Still, that is a step back that is only going to prolong his return to active duty. He was already expected to miss the first two weeks of the season, but now that could be extended as he says he needs at least ten bullpen sessions before pitching in a live game and one can only assume he'll need a few live rehab games before being activated from the DL. With his clock now reset once more, him missing the entire month of April seems pretty likely.

This development also explains the rumors last week that Jerry Dipoto was searching the trade market for potential relief help. Right-handed relief pitching was a big problem for the Angels last season and Madson was supposed to solve that, but now that he can't be counted on, the Halos are wise to see what else they can dig up. There are no substantive rumors as of yet, but knowing that the Cubs are shopping Carlos Marmol and that the Halos tried to acquire him in the failed Dan Haren trade at the start of the off-season, it would make sense if the two teams discussed Marmol once more, even though that scares the hell out of me both because of his contract and his decaying performance.

A few other names to watch are, and these are strictly speculation on my part, free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde (no thanks on both counts) or supposedly available trade pieces Alfredo Aceves (yikes), Matt Capps (yawn) and really any other veteran who is in camp as a non-roster invite that may not make the Opening Day roster. These are not attractive options, so let's hope Madson can get himself healthy in a hurry.


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Weaver, Hanson and the velocity that is (probably) never coming back

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

Leading up to the season we've heard a lot about lost velocity. Specifically, the velocity that Jered Weaver and Tommy Hanson lost over the last few years. There has been much hand-wringing over whether or not Jered and Tommy would be able to recover that velocity and if they don't, how they will adjust to life with a not-as-fast fastball. Mike Scioscia even went so far as to say that he has "no doubt" that Hanson will be able to regain the MPHs he lost the last two years. Scioscia and the team have had essentially nothing to say about Weaver's velocity issues last season, almost as if they don't even think it is worth worrying about.

Well, it turns out that there is plenty of season to doubt and worry. That velocity probably isn't coming back. At least that is what the research says:

91% of pitchers that do finish a season down at least 1 mph compared to the previous season will lose additional velocity the following season (average decline of 1.6 mph), with only 7% regaining some (but, likely, not all) of that velocity back.

7 percent? Gulp. Those aren't great odds at all. But wait! It actually gets worse. That same writer, Bill Pretti, also did some research into how likely a pitcher is to recover velocity based on age, you know, because you don't need those 36-year old pitchers messing up the curve for everyone. Take a look for yourself:

Age % Gain Velocity Odds Ratio Ave Velocity Gain (mph) Ave Velocity Loss (mph)
24 14% 0.24 0.9 -1.7
25 19% 0.30 0.4 -1.6
26 5% 0.10 0.7 -1.3
27 13% 0.25 0.3 -2.0
28 5% 0.12 0.5 -1.6
29 0% 0.00 0.0 -1.7
30 10% 0.22 0.4 -1.4
31 0% 0.00 0.0 -1.7
32 8% 0.23 0.1 -1.3
33 0% 0.00 0.0 -1.5
All 7% 0.16 0.4 -1.6

Halo Headlines: Snyder could replace Conger, predictions about Trout

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

The March 19th, 2013 edition of daily news for the Los Angeles Angels including Snyder could replace Conger, predictions about Trout and much more...

The Story: Hank Conger's throwing looks like it is going to cost him a roster spot in the wake of the team signing Chris Snyder.

The Monkey Says: I wrote yesterday that I think Snyder has the edge, which is really saying something because he is at best an average defender and doesn't look like he can hit anymore. Conger's throwing problems are just to ugly right now for him to be on a big league roster, so he pretty much has two weeks to fix those issues and get back in the team's good graces.


The Story: Eight predictions about Mike Trout in 2013.

The Monkey Says: I really hope he the Twitter punctuation thing comes in on that 40% side. Incredibly annoying.


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2013 Player Projection: Erick Aybar

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

With his rich new contract extension set to kick in this year, can Angels fans expect more from Erick Aybar with him entering his prime or will it just be more of the same productive but maddening inconsistency?

2012 Stats: 554 PA, .290 AVG, .324 OBP, .416 SLG, 67 R, 8 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB, 4 CS, 61 K, .321 wOBA, 109 OPS+, 3.4 fWAR

2013 ZiPS Projections: 601 PA, .276 AVG, .317 OBP, .393 SLG, 72 R, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 23 SB, 6 CS, 69 K, .309 wOBA, 99 OPS+, 2.7 fWAR

2013 Bill James Projections: 553 PA, .278 AVG, .321 OBP, .389 SLG, 69 R, 7 HR, 48 RBI, 20 SB, 7 CS, 65 K, .307 wOBA

2013 CAIRO Projections: 488 PA, .274 AVG, .315 OBP, .392 SLG, 55 R, 7 HR, 44 RBI, 17 SB, 5 CS, 62 K, .309 wOBA

2013 MWAH Projections*: 650 PA, .285 AVG, .318 OBP, .406 SLG, 88 R, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 28 SB, 6 CS, 80 K, .322 wOBA

*The MWAH projections are simply my best guess based off my own personal opinion and research (my wOBA calculation is approximate)

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Angels sign Chris Snyder, Conger now in limbo

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

Rumors started circulating late last week that the Angels were on the lookout for a veteran back-up catcher in the wake of a spring training in which Hank Conger has knocked the cover off the ball with the bat but been throwing like the Korean-American version of Rube Baker. Those throwing problems made the Angels nervous so instead of plying Hank with lingerie catalogs and nudie mags, they, in typical Dipoto fashion, acted fast and have signed veteran catcher Chris Snyder to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training.

Chris Snyder had been in Nationals camp, but was released this morning, which is nice because it saved the Angels the trouble of trying to work out a trade. As I had planned to post later this morning in a review of the Angels' catching options, Snyder is an ideal fit for Dipoto and the kind of players he prefers. Snyder is an established veteran, giving them some certainty behind Conger, who is at least passable defensively and has some pop with his bat as well as a knack for drawing a lot of walks even when he isn't hitting.

For his career, Snyder has slash line of .225/.329/.385, making him kind of a poor man's Chris Iannetta. But last season in Houston he was only able to post a .176/.295/.308 slash line. A big part of that is Snyder underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc back in 2011, so there is a very real chance that he is no longer the same player he was prior to the injury and thus my comment earlier about his defense at least being passable. It could be better, we just don't really know where is is health-wise.

At a minimum, Snyder is now in camp as an insurance policy behind Conger in case he doesn't get his throwing ironed out. However, it seems unlikely that he is magically going to fix his problems and regain the trust of the coaching staff. As such, Snyder is probably the favorite to make the Opening Day roster as the back-up catcher with Conger heading to the minors possibly for a very long time.

The question then with Conger is if this might actually be the end of the line for him in Anaheim. He has tried for a few years now to secure a permanent spot on the roster but had his defense thwart those efforts each and every time. At a point, it is time to just cut bait. If he doesn't make the roster, don't be the least bit surprised if Hank gets shopped around the league, although that may no be a great idea since it weakens the depth at catcher, where Iannetta and Snyder both have injury histories, and would be a classic example of selling an asset at the bottom of its value. But if they keep him, it is unclear what, if anything, he is going to have to do to get back in good standing with Scioscia and the front office.


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Halo Headlines: Angels looking to trade for a back-up catcher, Weaver dealing with dead arm

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

The March 18th, 2013 edition of daily news for the Los Angeles Angels including Angels looking to trade for a back-up catcher, Weaver dealing with dead arm and much more...

The Story: The Angels are rumored to be scouring the trade market for a more established back-up catcher.

The Monkey Says: Hank Conger is simply a mess throwing the ball right now, so the team is looking for a fallback option if not an outright replacement. Already they've been linked to Ramon Hernandez and Chris Snyder. I don't imagine anything will happen until much closer to the start of the season as the Halos might hope that a veteran they like gets cut instead of giving up an actual asset for someone. I'll have a deeper look at this situation later today.


The Story: Jered Weaver is dealing with dead arm right now.

The Monkey Says: It happens to him every spring, but for some reason this makes me nervous given that arm and back problems he had last season.  He still has two weeks to sharpen up though.


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Angels acquire prospect from Phillies for literally nothing

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

The latest rumors have the Angels kicking tires on potential back-up catchers, but today they managed to work another trade of a completely different variety. It was announced that they acquired a pitching prospect from the Phillies for a level of compensation that is, well, unique:

That's right, nothing. They got a minor league pitcher for absolutely nothing. No prospects. No money. Not even a sack of baseballs. Ruben Amaro Jr., you've done it again!

The crazy thing about it is that Michael Cisco isn't some 34-yeard old minor league journeyman. He's 25 years old and only a few years removed from being a top 25 prospect in the Philadelphia system. He's obviously not really advanced from there, but it isn't as if he is a total write off. In fact, he just converted to relief in the last year and did a pretty decent job, so there is a chance that he could someday be a back of the bullpen guy. Again, that isn't much, but there is potential value to be had. That value though is something the Phillies just gave away for free... for whatever reason.

What I'd really like to know about this deal is how it came to pass. This is fairly unprecedented, so it must've had some sort of bizarre twists and turns to settle on a compensation of nothing. Did Amaro just call up the Angels and offer him for free? Did Jerry Dipoto call the Phillies and ask about him and Amaro just wasn't in the mood to haggle?  Here is how I like to imagine that phone call going:

Amaro: (answers phone) Hello.

Dipoto: Ruben! How are you doing?

Amaro: I'm fine, Jerry, good to hear from you. How's the family?

Dipoto: Doing wonderful as always. They are truly a blessing. Anyway, I don't want to waste either of our time, I just called with a minor inquiry I wanted to run by you. There's a kid in your system, Mike Cisco and one of our scouts really-

Amaro: He's yours.

Dipoto: Um, what?

Amaro: You want him, right? He's yours.

Dipoto: Oh, well, that's great. I mean, shouldn't we talk price first though? We just like him as depth, so maybe a cash deal-

Amaro: Nah, don't worry about it. Just take him.

Dipoto: For cash, you mean?

Amaro: No, I mean just take him. I don't see what is so hard to understand about this, Jerry.

Dipoto: So, I get him for free?

Amaro: Yup.

Dipoto: Wait a minute. Is this a joke? Am I being punked? Is this really Tony Reagins?

Amaro: No, not a joke. This is Ruben, but I am abig fan of Tony's work.

Dipoto: I can tell.

Amaro: Great doing business with you, Jerry. We'll have Cisco on the first flight to Scottsdale.

Dipoto: Wow, you're paying his airfare too?

Amaro: Yeah, sure, whatever. Look, I've really got to wrap this up. I've got a whole season of Duck Dynasty burning a hole in my DVR and I've gotta get back to it.

Dipoto: Sure, Ruben. No problem. Thanks a lot. Good luck this season.

Amaro: You too, Jerry. Bye now. (Hangs up phone.) Sucker!

Dipoto: (Hangs up phone.) What the hell just happened? Is this real life? Wait a minute, I just had an idea! (Intercoms his assistant) Susan, find out when the next new episode of some show called Duck Dynasty is and setup a reminder for me to call Amaro five minutes after it starts to ask him about taking on Vernon Wells' contract.


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